Where will the “rain train” setup today?

7-3-25. 2:45pm. This Update is brought to you by Sedley's Grass Fed Beef. Sedley's Grass Fed Beef is a family-owned farm to table beef cattle operation located in western Gonzales County roughly 50 miles east of San Antonio and 70 miles south of Austin. www.sedleysgrassfedbeef.com

OK…as of post time, it’s looking like there could be some big rainfall totals over the western Hill Country, but depending on which model you look at, there could also be some big totals as far east as San Antonio and Austin. The really good news is that the higher totals are forecast to fall in the heart of our worst drought stricken areas. What forecasters are concerned about is rain training developing tonight…where storms form over the same area for several hours. Please tune into your local NOAA weather or emergency apps to alert you during the night…we don’t want another horrible situation like we saw recently in San Antonio when 13 people lost their lives as they were swept away on a bridge.

Here is what the NWS is saying about this upcoming event: “Models remain in disagreement over the placement of the heaviest rain totals, though the greatest rainfall potential this afternoon into tonight is over the Highway 90 corridor, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches appear likely, but locally higher amounts upwards of 5 to 7 inches could materialize if slow-moving storms begin to cluster. Given the heavy rainfall potential, some flooding is possible. A Flood Watch is now in effect through 7 AM Friday morning for the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country, where the intersection of higher forecast rainfall amounts and rainfall from the past few days is most evident. While the greatest concentration of modeled precipitation is in the aforementioned areas, the highest rain amounts could shift depending on where storms aggregate, and expansion towards the I-35 corridor is possible later this evening into the overnight as the trough moves gradually east.

As the trough and storms move east on Friday morning, rain odds will lower, but not vanish over the weekend, with daily scattered pm poppers occurring in the afternoons.

Mark