Diving into a variety of weather topics today…

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With our continued “Ditto Weather” not changing anytime soon, let’s talk about a few topics that could impact our upcoming winter, assuming it ever gets here!

The latest ENSO update came out today and we are officially in a weak La Niña as of September. Here’s what the CPC has to say about that: “Synopsis: La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 - February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance). A weak La Niña would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks).

A weak La Niña along with a very warm northern Pacific could have some interesting outcomes for our winter months, including a chance for several Polar Vortexes. Severe Weather Europe has a very lengthy article that just came out, detailing their thoughts for this winter. Here is a link to the post: Winter 2025/2026 Outlook: Global signals show a colder season ahead » Severe Weather Europe In a nutshell, here is their summary, “Now, to summarize, we have seen a combination of four factors that have contributed to colder winters in the past and are now starting to align again for the 2025/2026 Winter season. There are still plenty of other medium or small-scale factors that can shift the scales in the opposite direction, but the main drivers show promise for now.”

We all know that the long-range models should be taken with a grain of salt and a shot of Tequila, but the latest CFS model is predicting our first decent front around Halloween and the potential for some arctic air a week later. As a bonus, the model is also predicting a major pattern change for higher rain odds as well. November could be filled with some positive surprises!

Mark