Moving in the right direction…
10-21-25. 2:15pm This Update is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply. We have an extensive supply of fencing materials including barbed and netting wire, t-posts, cedar and treated posts, brace and twist pipe, staples, clips, and welded panels. We also stock 7 different types of medium and heavy-duty gates ranging in length from 4 ft-20 ft. We sell galvanized portable panels and 24 ft free-standing pipe panels, too. We have concrete and poly water troughs in various sizes along with a selection bunk and hay feeders. www.davyranchsupply.com
Happy to see that all of the latest model runs are not only increasing rain totals for Friday night, but enlarging the rain zone as well. I’d like to see coverage expand more west, and that is possible, since we are still three days out from the event. From the NWS: “Global models are in relatively good agreement with an upper level trough and compact low within it moving through the southern Plains Friday into Saturday. This appears to be the best chances and coverage of rainfall we have had in some time, and for most locations will be welcome given the flash drought conditions that have developed.” The latest GFS model is forecasting a large line of storms to form in west Texas on Friday night, sweeping through our area from midnight through daybreak on Saturday.
Meanwhile in the tropics, we have tropical storm Mellissa that will strengthen into a hurricane, then meander in the Caribbean, near Haiti and Jamaica later this week. The latest spaghetti models continue to keep this storm out of the Gulf, with no threat to us.
Don’t forget to check out Comet Lemmon tonight! I’ll have my camera set up and hope to post some photos tomorrow. It will appear to the left of the Big Dipper, just above the horizon in the NW, after sunset. If you get real lucky, you may also see Comet Swan to the southwest and while you are out comet gazing, there is a chance you could see a few meteors from the Orionid meteor shower. Needless to say, you’ll need to head to the country and away from the city lights to have a chance for seeing the comets or the meteors.
This Update is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply. We have an extensive supply of fencing materials including barbed and netting wire, t-posts, cedar and treated posts, brace and twist pipe, staples, clips, and welded panels. We also stock 7 different types of medium and heavy-duty gates ranging in length from 4 ft-20 ft. We sell galvanized portable panels and 24 ft free-standing pipe panels, too. We have concrete and poly water troughs in various sizes along with a selection bunk and hay feeders. www.davyranchsupply.com
Our wimpy front is now moving through San Antonio.
A cool front and low pressure will give us a good chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday night and early Saturday morning.
The latest GFS model shows where it thinks the low will be on Saturday.
A nice line of storms are forecast to form in west Texas, then move SE. This is where the storms are likely to be around midnight on Friday night.
There is a chance for excessive rain in the green zone Friday-Saturday morning.
How much rain the latest models are forecasting to fall from Friday night -Saturday.
