Heavy rain continues for some…

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Based on what has occurred with the models over the past 24hrs, I’m beginning to think none of us has a true idea of what will happen over the next 24hrs. When I went to bed last night, all of the models were keeping heavy rain north of San Antonio, which did happen overnight in Travis, Burnet and Williamson, but when I got up an hour ago, the radar is showing heavy rain developing to the east and south of San Antonio. Now I’m seeing flood warnings for Caldwell, Gonzales and Guadalupe counties. With upper-level winds out of the north, looking at satellite imagery, it almost appears that this MCS is being nudged to the south. You will see the latest model runs below, but as of post time, most have gotten it wrong already!

Below are the latest incredible rainfall totals, along with watches and model updates. At this point, if you are in a flood watch, take it very seriously as this tropical batch of air can produce dramatic rainfall rates and lead to quick flooding, as we saw yesterday in the Hill Country. Please make sure your NOAA radio is on or your emergency apps on alert. I’ll be updating info in the comments section all day. Please feel free to share your rainfall totals, videos or thoughts on this system!

As of post time, the death toll in the Kerrville area is now 24, with dozens missing…my heart, prayers and thoughts go out to the families and hard working emergency workers who are dealing with this horrific event.

Mark