A terrible night in the Hill Country…
7-4-25. 3pm This Update is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply. We have an extensive supply of fencing materials including barbed and netting wire, t-posts, cedar and treated posts, brace and twist pipe, staples, clips, and welded panels. We also stock 7 different types of medium and heavy-duty gates ranging in length from 4 ft-20 ft. We sell galvanized portable panels and 24 ft free-standing pipe panels, too. We have concrete and poly water troughs in various sizes along with a selection bunk and hay feeders. www.davyranchsupply.com
As feared in my post from yesterday, there have been confirmed deaths from overnight flooding in Hunt and as of post time, there are still those that are missing. Our next door neighbor up here in Pagosa Springs, CO where I live, almost lost her grandchild at the Mystic Camp in Hunt as they had to be evacuated in the middle of the night due to rising flood waters. Her grandchild’s friend went missing and fortunately was found alive 3 miles down the Guadalupe!
This MCS system, that moved in from Big Bend over night has stalled in the vicinity of San Saba/Mills county and will continue to spawn more storms around it. Not to be forgotten are Bandera, Mason, Gillespie, Travis and Llano counties, where flood warnings are currently in effect. Below are the latest short-range model runs and they are keeping the heavier rain totals to the NE of where the mega rains hit near Kerrville.
The atmosphere will continue to be very wet with high PWAT values over the next few days, so scattered storms for the rest of the area will continue to be in the forecast through the weekend. High pressure should take over by Monday and the rest of next week looks dry.
As I mentioned this morning, although I am not a hydrologist and don’t pretend to be one, I will be surprised if Canyon Lake does not almost fill up from these rains. I’m also hoping to see a nice spike at Medina Lake as well.
Stay safe!
Mark
This Update is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply. We have an extensive supply of fencing materials including barbed and netting wire, t-posts, cedar and treated posts, brace and twist pipe, staples, clips, and welded panels. We also stock 7 different types of medium and heavy-duty gates ranging in length from 4 ft-20 ft. We sell galvanized portable panels and 24 ft free-standing pipe panels, too. We have concrete and poly water troughs in various sizes along with a selection bunk and hay feeders. www.davyranchsupply.com
2:45pm radar
Approximate location of the center of circulation from the MCS system.
SUMMARY...Unstable air downstream of persistent MCC will have
solid moisture flux allowing for intense localized 2-3"/hr rates
and possible flash flooding.
24hr NWS rainfall totals so far...
How much rain the latest short-range models are forecasting over the next 24hrs. Click on images to see them larger.
