Watching Hurricane Lorena!

9-3-25. 9:15am. This Update is brought to you by Sedley's Grass Fed Beef. Sedley's Grass Fed Beef is a family-owned farm to table beef cattle operation located in western Gonzales County roughly 50 miles east of San Antonio and 70 miles south of Austin. www.sedleysgrassfedbeef.com

As I mentioned yesterday, it’s odd to be watching the eastern Pacific for potentially sending us some rain instead of the usual Atlantic, in early September. This should be the height of the Atlantic season with rain from the Pacific, normally happening in the fall. While there is a potential storm forming in the Atlantic, the latest models are keeping it far away from Texas. The latest Global Tropical Hazards Outlook does look a little more active for the Gulf later this month, as seen in the graphics below, but odds are still less than 20% for a storm actually forming.

So, what are our odds of seeing rain over the weekend from Lorena? At this point, it’s a mixed bag of the GFS predicting some pockets of heavy rain for us and the Canadian model forecasting almost zero. First, we have to hope that the storm stays on track to veer NE after it moves into Baja, then we have to hope that a trough moving through, picks up enough moisture from it to drop some decent rain totals. As of post time, I’m thinking the NBM model is more likely, with rainfall totals of 1/2-1 inch for most of us. Of course, I’m still rooting for the GFS with its robust rainfall totals of over 7 inches! Best odds for rain, by the way, will be from Sunday-Monday. We will hopefully have a better idea of how this plays out over the next couple of days.

Mark