Here we go!

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Once again, some of you got lucky this morning with some bonus rain in the northwestern Hill Country! The highest total I saw was near Junction, where 1.60 inches of rain fell.

The real deal starts tonight through this weekend, with the best chances from tonight through Thursday night. Our setup is a stationary front over the Hill Country and several disturbances (upper level troughs) that will be tracking from west to east over the next couple of days. A large cluster of storms will form over Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, then move east during the late afternoon and evening. The NWS has some great graphics timing this out and projected rainfall totals. I have also included the latest HRRR short range radar forecast for tonight. The best odds for severe storms will be along the border, but even locations to the east still need to watch out for hail and high winds.

Another disturbance moves through on Thursday, giving us a good shot of rain before things start drying up over the weekend. There will be some scattered storms around on Saturday and Sunday, but the heavier rain will have moved out.

As always, tune to your local NOAA radio or make sure your emergency apps are activated to hear warnings for your particular location.

Mark