Another chance for severe storms and heavy rain tonight.

5-29-25. 2:15pm. This Update is brought to you by Sedley's Grass Fed Beef. If severe storms and rain make you hungry, then please order up some grass fed beef from our sponsor! Sedley's Grass Fed Beef is a family-owned farm to table beef cattle operation located in western Gonzales County roughly 50 miles east of San Antonio and 70 miles south of Austin. www.sedleysgrassfedbeef.com

I’m still scratching my head about last night’s Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was issued for the Hill Country. Almost all of the models were forecasting a line of severe storms to develop in our far NE counties, then moving off and going poof…and that’s exactly what happened, with Austin and locations to the north, getting some big hail and high winds. Meanwhile, the rest of south-central saw little to no rain or storms.

Here is a statement about the wind damage in Austin from the NWS:

...NWS Damage Survey for the 05/28/25 Severe Thunderstorm in 
Austin Texas...

A National Weather Service survey team concluded a long track 
microburst, associated with a supercell, occurred from central 
Austin, near the Hyde Park area, southeast to just east of the 
Austin Bergstrom International Airport. The length of the damage 
was approximately 10 miles long, with a path width ranging from 
one mile to a maximum of around 2.5 miles on the east side of 
Austin. Numerous trees and powerlines were damaged along the path.
Large tree branches were snapped and a few trees uprooted that 
had shallow root systems. Minor shingle damage was observed on 
some homes. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be between 
65 and 85 mph. The Austin Bergstrom International Airport recorded
a peak wind gust of 77 mph.

Tonight’s situation looks more promising, with most of the short range models forecasting storms to fire up to the NW of us along the cool front, then move SE during the night. As of post time, the best odds for rain will be in the Hill Country and western counties, but it is possible that some of the activity will hold together and impact locations as far east as San Antonio and Austin. Unfortunately, the counties to the south of HWY 90 and I-10 east are not likely to see much rain from this system. While hail and high winds will be a threat, since the storms will be moving through in the early hours of Friday morning when we have cooled down, that threat is less. As always, make sure you are tuned to your local NOAA radio or have your emergency apps on for local warnings.

On Saturday, our odds for rain get a boost from the remnants of Tropical Storm Alvin, off the eastern coast of Mexico. It is forecast to move into Baja, then go poof! The moisture from the storm may get pulled into the jet stream on Saturday and increase rain chances. As of post time, the biggest impacts will be in our SW counties.

Things may change, but the latest model runs are predicting a chance for scattered storms on Sunday and Monday as an upper-level low drifts across north Texas. After that, we dry out for about a week, before we see our next chance for rain closer to the 12th or 13th of the month.