Our Gulf low is growing!

8-14-25. 2:45pm. Perfect weather for a BBQ! This Update is brought to you by Sedley's Grass Fed Beef. Sedley's Grass Fed Beef is a family-owned farm to table beef cattle operation located in western Gonzales County roughly 50 miles east of San Antonio and 70 miles south of Austin. www.sedleysgrassfedbeef.com

Before we talk tropics, congratulations to all of you rain lottery winners in south-central Texas yesterday, with some of you recording 1-2 inches! Below are the rain totals and here is a link from the NWS: IEM :: PNS from NWS EWX There will be some more pm poppers this afternoon, but they should be very scattered and less intense.

You throw a low in the Gulf in August or September and you never know what will happen! 24hrs ago the low in the Gulf looked like it had very little chance of forming into a depression before moving into northern Mexico on Friday, but as of post time, the odds have grown to 40% and a hurricane hunter aircraft will be heading out to the system this afternoon.

Here is the latest from the NHC:

"Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with 
an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is 
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf 
during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are 
marginally conducive for further development.  A tropical depression 
could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico 
or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical 
development.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is 
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas 
over the next few days.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en 
route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent."

The latest model runs are not handling this potential storm very well, with most predicting less than an inch of rain on Friday-Saturday. It seems to me that if this becomes a depression and moves into northern Mexico or far south Texas, that there will be some hefty rain totals for south Texas, our coastal plains and SW counties as it moves NW.

I’ll post updates later today as we know more…

Mark