A dry-line and a roll of the dice!

4-22-25. 4pm This Update is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply. We have an extensive supply of fencing materials including barbed and netting wire, t-posts, cedar and treated posts, brace and twist pipe, staples, clips, and welded panels. We also stock 7 different types of medium and heavy-duty gates ranging in length from 4 ft - 20 ft. We sell galvanized portable panels and 24 ft free-standing pipe panels, too. We have concrete and poly water troughs in various sizes along with a selection bunk and hay feeders. www.davyranchsupply.com

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for most of West Texas through 11pm tonight. While you may ask why that matters to us, it does! As these storms develop along the dryline, some may clump together, forming a MCS (mesoscale convective system), which can last throughout the night and even into tomorrow morning. These storms could become severe with chances for hail and high winds. There is also a chance for a few scattered storms forming anywhere in our area this afternoon, thanks to the very humid air we are experiencing right now, with dew points in the upper 60's and 70's.

We will see almost a repeat performance tomorrow and through Friday, with continued chances for scattered storms. As this event is convective, trying to pinpoint how much rain will fall for any particular area is a challenge for our models. I have posted the latest runs through Friday, but I would not take them too seriously. The two models that did well Easter Eve, were the short-range NAM and HRRR. As of post time, they are predicting that some of the storms over Mexico and West Texas will move across the border this evening, impacting parts of south-central and south Texas during the night.

Mark