Cloudy, with a chance for severe storms…

4-6-24. 10:30am. This eclipse-severe storms update is brought to you by 5E Trailers in Marion. They’re here to help you find the perfect trailer at the best price! https://www.5etrailers.com/

Unfortunately, as we close in on the big day, those pesky models continue to forecast mainly cloudy skies for Monday’s total eclipse. Adding more fun to the mix, most of south-central Texas now has a chance for severe thunderstorms on Monday afternoon, Monday night and Tuesday. Hail and high winds will be the biggest threat. This is all happening because I am driving my new vehicle to Texas and staying at a location that has no garage! On a positive note, our chance for rain have also increased. Look for rain chances to end on Tuesday night as a cool-front moves through, giving us some great weather for the rest of the week, with highs in the 70’s and lows in the 40’s and 50’s.

Here is the latest thinking from the SA-Austin NWS on Monday’s eclipse: “Skies unfortunately are forecast to remain mostly cloudy on eclipse day. The big question is if any scattering of the low clouds can take place, and if so what degree of thickness in the high clouds will there be. GFS time height series has been showing a deep layer of saturation in the lower levels all the way through the eclipse window. However, the NAM12, which often handles the low-level regime better during the return moisture return period, is indicating a shallower layer of low-level saturation, with perhaps the possibility of a few breaks in the low clouds by the totality window. The greatest potential for these breaks will be closer to the Rio Grande, where the low-level moisture depth is the shallowest. However, high clouds will remain over the region, and there have been indications that the depth of the high clouds will increase during the afternoon hours.”

Mark